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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd